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Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0807 schematically remained within the forecast. However due to the depth of the dollar strengthening we may return to the initially preferred scenario v.3 [см. Annual-07(2)]. This fact was revealed in the article Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction and daily forecasts. The result is given in picture G1.
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For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of GBP movement a month ago is given in the chart.
The current variant of wave counting
For the survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-07(2) and in the article Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction. .
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According to scenario 3 upward wave (B) keeps forming, currently supposed wave XX of (B) is forming. Wave X of (B) ending is the critical level before wave XX forming completes.
Currently the price is at the bifurcation point and it is not clear yet which of scenarios possible for wave XX of (B) the price will choose. It may be either some kind of the flat (extended or running) or an extended horizontal correction (see the next pictures).
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The last upward movement [wave (iv) in Figure E3] was crushed at the very end, allowing to regret to interpret it either as a narrow double zigzag or a bit strained impulse. That is why both variants should be taken into account until the wave picture becomes clear.
The last upward movement may be treated as an impetuous double zigzag (iv) of [c] without any strains. In this case till the end of September downward movement may form in the shape of a narrow zigzag construction which won't break the critical levels and complete diagonal triangle [c] of XX. As the result wave XX of (B) may assume the shape of the flat, alternation guidelines Complicated-Simple-Most Complicated will be followed В результате волна XX of (B) может принять форму волновой плоскости с соблюдением указания по чередованию С-П-СС (see table 4-2 of my book).
It should be noted that the amplitude of the supposed wave [b] of XX is slightly outside the framework of statistics for 95% of similar wave flats (see the table 4-3 of my book), which is an alerting factor.
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At the same time if with some strains we suppose that the last upward movement is impulse (a) of [d] then it will be most probable that wave XX of (B) is assuming the shape of the extended wave correction ( see tables 3-1 and 3-2 of my book).
In this case a shallow downward correction (b) of [d] with further completion of upward zigzag [d] should be expected to form till the second half of September .
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 2, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.
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