 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0907 was forming in accordance with the forecast. The result is given in Figure G1.
|
|
Figure G1. Final daily chart of September forecast, 2007.
|
|
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of GBP movement a month ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
For the survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-07(2) and in the article Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction .
|
|
Figure G2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
|
|
In the picture we can clearly see that the supposed upward zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) has almost completed. The wave structure gives several arguments in favor of this supposition:
- impulse (a) and diagonal triangle (c) are fully completed,
- price in expanding diagonal triangles as a rule doesn’t reach the upper forming line, and we can see it in the supposed diagonal triangle (c),
- diagonal triangle (c) is approximately equal to impulse (a) in length, suggesting a an almost ideal zigzag.
This is one of the suppositions that are the basis for the scenario with the developing corrective wave XX. If the supposition is true in October a deep downward corrective wave [e] of XX is expected to form (see the picture below).
Inspite of my preference of this scenario, there are no confirmation of the completeion of the whole upward movement that has been developing since the middle of August. It means that if the following correction is modest and short term, the upward movement may continue, transforming zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) in an upward impulse or in a narrow double zigzag. In such case I will have to prefer one of the alternate scenarios.
|
|
Figure G3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-alt.
|
|
Several variants of counting of the corrective knot, shown in the picture, are possible. The accepted variant will be confirmed if the price immediately reverses downward, than fixes below the lower forming line of trend channel of the wave [d], and then crosses the confirming levels.
Ideally, a rather deep corrective wave [e] of XX witn ending below the 2.0130 mark (the top of the wave Y) must form.
If the price upward movement continues after a short term correction one of the alternate variants may becaome preferable (it is shown in the chart with the grey color).
Thus it is the depth of the expected correction that will determine the further scenario of price movement.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 30, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.
|
|
|
|
Learn more
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
+7 (495) 710-76-76
|
© 1998—2008 «Alpari» |
|
