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Figure G1. Wave counting on the weekly chart.
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The price is reluctant to go up forming since the end of the last year the successive set of zigzags and spittering them virtually. That’s why without canceling the scenario considered in the preceding forecast (refer to Monthly-0408), I would like to consider a rather perspective variant with a large horizontal triangle.
Supposedly wave 4 of (C) is completed. The following argument can be given in the favor of this supposition :
- the completeness of the wave structure of wave 4 — a contracting horizontal triangle is formed.
- the price is near the border of the trend channel of impulse (C).
- corrective waves of the supposed impulse (C) demonstrate alternation by depth and shape (wave 2 — zigzag 89%, wave 4 — horizontal triangle 39%).
- oscillator MACD 5-34-5 went to the negative territory.
The ending of the supposed wave [a] of 4 (1.9336) is the critical level.
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Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart.
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Unfortunately so far there is no confirmation of the completion of this triangle. Consequently the price may continue further development of its ending structure and rewrite the endings of waves [c], [d] и [e] of 4.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 3, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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