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Figure C1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.
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The current wave counting allows the supposition that the fourth wave 4 of the global downward impulse [C] may be completed (refer to the survey Figure C4 below). The fact that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its key interest rates unchanged at the low level may serve as an additional factor of the dollar’s negative appeal and its continuous decline (the decline of USD/CHF).
Please note that the high of the supposed wave [y] failed to overcome the level of the terminus of wave [w]. It may speak both of the strength of the expected downward movement and of the incompleteness of corrective wave 4. As the confirmatory levels for this scenario haven’t been passed by the price yet the alternate variant has the equal right to exist (refer to Figures below).
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Figure C2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Probable alternate.
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In the framework of the alternate variant the upward correction 4 continues to develop in the form of a zigzag construction and may cross 1.06 at least.
As the whole wave construction that has been developing since the beginning of May so far looks like an extended correction at the moment the alternate scenario seems to me the most attractive.
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Figure C3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.
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Figure C4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-a.
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The supposed four 4 of impulse [C] without breaking the critical level (the ending of wave 1 of (3) of [C]) and guideline of alternation may continue upward development and reach 50% of the depth.
The area of the projected values for the terminus of wave (3) of [C] should be specified only after the completion of wave 4 of (3) of [C].
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 28, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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