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Figure E1.Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.
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The wave counting allows the supposition that the fourth wave 4 of the global upward impulse [C] may be completed (refer to the survey Figure E4 below). The fact that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its key interest rates unchanged at the low level may serve as an additional factor of the dollar’s negative appeal and its continuous decline (the rise of EUR/USD).
But note that the top of the supposed wave [z] failed to overcome the level of the terminus of wave [y]. It may speak both of the strength of the expected upward movement and of incompleteness of corrective wave 4. As the confirmatory level for this scenario haven’t been passed by the price yet the alternate variant has the same right to exist (refer to Figures below).
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Figure E2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Probable alternate.
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In the framework of the alternate variant almost horizontal correction 4 continues developing in the form of a zigzag construction and may cross 1.53 at least.
As the whole wave construction that has been developing since the beginning of May so far looks like a single extended correction [xx] the alternate variant seems to me more attractive at the moment.
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Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.
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Figure E4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-a.
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The supposed four 4 of impulse [C], without breaking the critical level (the ending of wave 1 of (3) of [C]) and guideline of alternation may continue downward development and reach the depth of 38% or 50%.
The areas of projected values for the ending of wave (3) of [C] should be specified only after the completion of wave 4 of (3) of [C].
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 28, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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