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Figure C1.Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.
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In the framework of the current scenario the whole correction 4 can be presented in the form of a double zigzag [w]-[x]-[y], wave-link [x] of 4 of which has assumed the shape of an ordinary zigzag (a)-(b)-(c).
It isn’t ruled out that zigzag [y] of 4 is completed, i.e. the whole supposed correction 4 is completed. If this is the case in September one should expect progressive decline of the US dollar (the decline of USD/CHF).
A weak point of this supposition is a disproportionately narrow zigzag [y] of 4, and also the fact that the confirmatory levels of the current scenario haven’t been passed by the price yet.
In this case the alternate variant of counting that allows further strengthening of the US dollar (the rise of USD/CHF; refer to Figure C2, below) remains actual.
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Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.
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In the framework of the alternate variant it isn’t ruled out that upward narrow trend since the middle of July (wave (a) of [y] of 4) is only a part of the developing zigzag [y] of 4. In this case in September one should expect a shallow downward or horizontal retracement (wave (b) of [y] of 4) and further continuation of the US dollar’s strengthening (the rise of USD/CHF in the form of wave (c) of [y] of 4).
There remains for us to expect the confirmation of one of scenarios.
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Figure C3. Wave counting on the weekly chart.
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Figure C4. Wave counting on the monthly chart.
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The wave counting on the weekly and monthly charts hasn’t changed so far.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
August 31, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
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