| Date |
Time of release
(Moscow time) |
Index |
Period |
Expected range |
Experts'
forecast |
Traders'
expectations |
Previous reading |
| 29.03 |
16:30 |
Chain Price Index |
4th quarter, 2006 |
from 1.6% to 1.8% |
1.7% |
1.7% |
1.7% |
| 29.03 |
16:30 |
GDP |
4th quarter, 2006 |
from 2.0% to 2.5% |
2.2% |
2.2% |
2.2% |
Definition: Market value of goods and services, produced within some definite period of time, including profit of foreign companies and non-residents, working in the USA, and excluding incomes of American citizens and companies, earned abroad.
This index shows domestic market price value change of goods and prices for some definite period of time (quarter, year).
Gross Domestic Product, the main index, reflects the growth rate of economy. It includes consumption, investments, exports minus imports, government purchases and inventories. Usually, consumption is about 2/3 of GDP. GDP deflator, also indicated in the report, shows nominal prices changes. Chain Price Index (Chain Deflator) is the correspondent indicator.
Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce
Frequency: Released quarterly, (January, April, July, October). A month later revised data are released, two months later real GDP for a quarter is reported.
Market importance: High.
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The last reading on the chart is predicted data
Analysis: From the 3rd quarter, 2001 the indicator has been in an uptrend, it reached its high in the 3rd quarter 2003, then GDP rates of growth slowdown was observed. Sharp growth of GDP in the first quarter was triggered by economic recovery after the hurricanes. In the second-fourth quarters economic rates of growth slowed down significantly.
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Analysis:In the above chart Chain Price Index(Chain Deflator) is monthly adjusted, the chart of forecast readings is also given there. Inflationary pressure decreased sharply on oil prices fall, this trend will continue in the 4th quarter.
Conclusion:
| Index |
4th quarter 2006 |
3rd quarter, 2006 |
Industrial Production (IP)
(annual rates of growth) |
+3.66% |
+5.07% |
Retail Sales (RS)
(annual rates of growth) |
+4.99% |
+5.51% |
Durable Goods Orders (DGO)
(annual rates of growth) |
+1.95% |
+9.46% |
IP rates of growth slowed down significantly in the 4th quarter, as well as DGO growth rates. Retails Sales rates of growth kept decreasing. Foreign Trade deficit reduced sharply on the back of those negative data, which had a positive impact on GDP in the 4th quarter. Forecasts are adequate to the situation.
GDP deflator decreased mainly on oil prices fall in the 4th quarter. Forecasts are adequate to the situation.
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