Non-farm Payrolls

Non-farm Payrolls — one of indexes, recorded and reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is included into monthly survey «National Current Employment Statistics» (CES).

Non-farm Payrolls represent the total number of paid US workers of any business, excluding the following employees: general government employees, employees of nonprofit organizations that provide assistance to individuals, farm employees. About 400 thousand of companies and 50 thousand of home economics are estimated. These data are released monthly, adjusted in accordance with seasonal fluctuations, etc .

Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Workweek and Hourly Earnings are used for inflation rate, that is for rates change also.

Frequency: Released monthly, usually on Friday at 16:30

Market importance: High

Analysis: NFP was in an uptrend from October, 2001. Since September, 2003 this indicator has been positive, which signifies increase in the US labor market. This indicator rates of growth have been stabilized within the last two years. From December 2005 the indicator weakened. Growth rates slowed down last year.

Analysis:NFP y/y rates of growth are decreasing, which signals weakness in the market. NFP may keep slowing down in the mid-term plan.

Before NFP release the following data were reported:

Index	February, 2007	March, 2007
Employment environment, included into Chicago PMI	50,6	45,0
Employment environment, included into ISM	51,1	48,7
Employment environment, included into ISM Service	52,2	50,8
Jobless claims in the USA	330К	321К
Jobless claims in the USA (4-week moving average)	339,5К	315,75К

Conclusion:
In March employment indices dropped sharply, they are still at quite low levels. Employment indices signal possible moderate slowdown in the labor market, Employment environment, included into Chicago PMI and ISM Service decreased abruptly. Jobless claims in the USA (4-week moving average) decreased quite sharply having shown the strongest decrease from the mid of 2006. Jobless claims also decreased. These data are quite ambiguous, they signal that in March not bad rates of growth, about 120K-150K, may be expected. In the mid-term plan the situation may worsen in the labor market as employment indicators signal, especially in the services area, which comprises 5/6 of the total amount of employees in the USA.