Macroeconomic Indicators

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  Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

  Country: USA

  Definition: Market value of goods and services, produced within some definite period of time, including profit of foreign companies and non-residents, working in the USA, and excluding incomes of American citizens and companies, earned abroad.

  Description: This index shows domestic market price value change of goods and prices for some definite period of time (quarter, year). Gross Domestic Product is the main indicator of the economic situation, which reflects economic rates of growth. It includes consumption, investments, exports minus imports, government purchases and inventories. Usually, consumption makes about 2/3 of GDP. GDP deflator, also indicated in the report, shows nominal prices changes. Chain Price Index (Chain Deflator) is the correspondent indicator.

  Influence: GDP growth is accompanied by economic recovery, whereas its leading growth, comparing with GDP growth of other countries, signals advantage of investment in the economy of this very country. GDP growth triggers national currency advance.

  Market Importance: 3

  Released: Released quarterly, at the last working day (January, April, July, October). A month later revised data are released, two months later real GDP for a quarter is reported. It is released at 8:30 AM ET.

  Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.

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  3 Month LIBOR Range

  Country: Switzerland

  Definition: 3 month LIBOR range.

  Description: 3 month LIBOR range. Swiss National Bank decided to set and maintain the 1.00 wide range for 3 month LIBOR on CHF to control short-term interest rates level. (LIBOR, London Interbank Offered Rate, is an interest rate at which large banks place lending in the London interbank money market. LIBOR rates are set for different periods and on different instruments. LIBOR is fixed at 11:00 each day, London time, and is an average of the last ten quotations offered by sellers).

  Influence: High interest rates decrease consumer lending growth rates and stimulate savings increase, which triggers economic development slowdown. However, speculations on rates hikes usually trigger consumer lending boom. Rates hikes usually trigger capital inflow increase and national currency advance in the mid-term perspective. Still they may trigger economic stagnation and negative impact on the exchange markets in the long-term plan in case rates hikes are not based on high economic growth rates.

  Market Importance: 3

  Released: Released quarterly, usually on the 3rd Thursday of the month (March, June, September, December).

  Source: The Swiss National Bank.

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  Durable Goods Orders

  Country: USA

  Definition: The net nominal difference between current monthly orders and annulled orders of the previous periods.

  Description: The indicator signals industrial demand on durables and non-durables. This indicator increase characterises production activity and its possible growth, while its decrease signals phase-down. That is why currency rate rises on this indicator increase and falls on decrease. This indicator includes Durable Goods Orders and Non-durable goods orders. Durable Goods Orders include goods with intended lifespan of more than 3 years (cars, furniture, building materials), which makes more than 50 of the total. Non-durable goods orders include food, clothes, light industrial goods etc.

  Influence: Factory Orders characterise production activity. Increase in the indicator is a positive factor for the economy, while decrease in the indicator signals decline.

  Market Importance: 2

  Released: Released monthly at 10:00 AM ET.

  Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.

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  Leading indicators index

  Country: USA

  Definition: Average weighted index of the leading indicators (Leading economic indicators are economic indicators which tend to increase or decrease before the other indicators).

  Description: Leading indicators index in the USA is a monthly average weighted index of the leading indicators: the average manufacturing-worker workweek, initial jobless claims, manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials, vendor performance, manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods, building permits, the level of the S&P 500, money supply, the interest-rate spread between the 10-year Treasury note and the fed funds rate, consumer expectations. Leading indicators index characterises economic development within the next six months. In accordance with the rule-of-thumb, negative figures of the index within three months indicate economic recession. LEI is more efficient at the peaks of economic activity. The index reverses about 10 months prior to the change from economic revival to recession and 1-2 months vice versa. From 1952 to 1998 LEI forecasted 10 recessions, 7 of which actually occurred.

  Influence: Leading indicators index increase triggers USD rise.

  Market Importance: 1

  Released: Released monthly at 10:00 AM ET.

  Source: The Conference Board, based in New York.

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  Chicago PMI Index

  Country: USA

  Definition: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index.

  Description: Chicago PMI index is the result of Chicago industry purchasing managers polling. It characterizes manufacturing orders, output prices and trading stocks status. The index readings below 50 characterise economic recession. It is released shortly before NAPM, which attracts additional attention to it.

  Influence: Chicago PMI index readings above 50 are usually treated as industrial activity growth ratio.

  Market Importance: 2

  Released: Released monthly at the last business day at 10:00 ET. The Purchasing Managers Association of Chicago.

  Source: The Purchasing Managers Association of Chicago.

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  Philadelphia Fed Index

  Country: USA

  Definition: Survey of manufacturers from Philadelphia (the USA), which indicates their attitude towards current economic situation.

  Description: Philadelphia Fed index is a survey of about 100 manufacturers in Philadelphia, which indicates their attitude towards current economic situation and perspectives for the nearest 6 months. The index signals economic rates of growth slowdown when it is below zero. This index can indicate what to expect from ISM index (Institute of Supply Managment’ index, former NAPM — National Association of Purchasing Managers), which comes out a few days later.

  Influence: This index increase triggers USD rise.

  Market Importance: 1

  Released: Released monthly, on the 3rd Thursday of the month at 10:00 AM ET.

  Source: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

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  Consumer Confidence Index

  Country: USA

  Definition: Monthly report on consumer confidence.

  Description: The Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly sample of 5,000 U.S. households, carried out to detect consumers’ reaction to the current situation and consumers’ confidence. The survey has been conducted since 1967. Its initial value is equal to «100». The index is based on a series of five questions, such as: «Financial situation of the family in relation to the previous year, Expected financial situation of the family within a year, Estimation of the economic situation within a year, Estimation of the expected unemployment and economic recession, Private buying estimation», which are to be answered either «better» or «worse». Results from the five questions are used to generate a single number. The index considers consumer opinion on both present conditions (2/5 of the index) and future expectations (the other 3/5). Traditionally Consumer Confidence Index is used to forecast the future health of the economy, it is considered to be a leading indicator of the business cycle.

  Influence: The increase in the index is favourable for the whole economy, which triggers USD advance.

  Market Importance: 1

  Released: Released around the 20th of each month at 10:00 AM ET.

  Source: The Conference Board, based in New York.

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  University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index

  Country: USA

  Definition: University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index.

  Description: A monthly survey of consumer confidence conducted by the University of Michigan to detect consumers’ confidence. Thus, consumers’ willingness to spend money is measured. It is a leading indicator of consumer climate. It consists of two components, sentiment (about 40% of the total index) and expectations (the other 60%) indices. About 500 consumers answer 5 questions about current and future economic situation (2 and 3 questions correspondingly). Answers to the first two questions form current conditions survey, whereas the last three questions form the expectation index.

  Influence: The increase in the index signal positive perspectives of the economic growth, whereas decrease signals possible deceleration in growth. The index increase triggers USD advance.

  Market Importance: 2

  Released: Released twice a month: a preliminary report is released around the 15th of each month, a final one is released in two weeks at 09:45 AM ET.

  Source: The University of Michigan.

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  CPI: Consumer Price Index

  Country: USA

  Definition: A measure of change in the cost of the consumer basket of goods and services.

  Description: CPI is the main inflationary indicator. It measures retail price changes in consumer goods and services, included into the fixed consumer basket, such as food, clothes, educational and health care services expenditures, expenditures on transport, utility bills, rest etc. The set of goods and services, included into the consumer basket, reflects typical set of goods commonly purchased by the population of a country. CPI is the most widely applicable inflationary indicator, used to calculate the minimum level wage, necessary to compose the nation’s budget. Once costs of consumer basket in 85 cities of the country are analyzed, Bureau of Labor statistics, U. S. Department of Labor defines the index value. In the USA CPI figures are collected from over 19000 retail establishments and 57000 households (about 80% of home population). Consumer basket is composed of goods (44.1%) and services (55.9%). No possible discount is taken into consideration when calculating this index. Moreover, improving quality of goods and services is also ignored.  CPI is analyzed together with PPI. In case economic rates of growth are quite steady, CPI and PPI increase may trigger interest rates hikes. It will bring about USD advance as investment becomes more profitable on higher interest rates. CPI ex Food & Energy, Core CPI, is considered to be more reliable, as these goods are most changeable.

  Influence: The indicator increase may trigger interest rates hikes.

  Market Importance: 3

  Released: Released monthly, around the 15th -21st (on Tuesday or Thursday), soon after PPI release at 08:30 AM ET.

  Source: Bureau of Labor statistics, U. S. Department of Labor.

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  Industrial Production

  Country: USA

  Definition: The indicator of the production output dynamics of the manufacturing and mineral establishment and utilities sector.

  Description: Industrial Production shows total output of the nation?s factories, mines, and utilities etc. Federal Reserve statistical report contains the index of change in manufacturing production output, stocks and bonds of public utilities and estimating of capacity utilization. Industrial Production is the key indicator of the nation?s industry state. The share of industrial production is about 40% of the economy of the country, which explains its strong influence on the stock market. Percent change in industrial production in comparison with the previous month is of special interest. In case production increases, the value of money also increases, which stimulates growth in the stock market and vice versa fall in the bond market.

  Influence: Sharp rise of Industrial Production supposes increase in money value and fall in the bond market. Though its changes impact prices gradually in advance as this indicator is the easiest one to analyse.

  Market Importance: 2

  Released: Released at the mid of each month at 09:15 ET.

  Source: The Federal Reserve.

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  Producer Price Index (PPI)

  Country: USA

  Definition: A measure of change in wholesale prices of goods and services received by their producers.

  Description: PPI reflects the dynamics of change in prices domestic producers sell their output at at the wholesale level. Before 1978 this indicator was known as the Wholesale price index. Producer Price Index measures changes in prices in all stages of precessing (crude, intermediate, and finished). PPI includes manufacturing and other commodities (agriculture, etc). Imports are not included but they have impact on PPI through prices of imported raw materials and components. PPI is the first released indicator of inflation. It reflects changes in wholesale prices either as they leave their place of production or as they enter the production process. Unlike CPI it doesn?t take the services sector into account. PPI is calculated on the basis of prices of about 3450 goods to their prices in 1982, the basis period when PPI is considered to be equal to 100. PPI includes the following types of goods: Consumer goods ? 40%; Food ? 26%; Industrial equipment ? 25%; Energy ? 9%. Usually PPI increase precedes CPI rise that is why this indicator is referred to as a leading indicator of inflation.

  Influence: Producer price index increase triggers cost-push inflation, the worst kind of inflation as analysts believe, as it has a stronger impact on economy than demand inflation does. The indicator increase may trigger higher interest rates.

  Market Importance: 2

  Released: Released monthly as 08:30 AM ET for the prior month.

  Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U. S. Department of Labor.

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  Capacity Utilisation

  Country: USA

  Definition: The indicator of the degree of industrial capacity utilization.

  Description: Capacity utilization shows the degree of economic industrial capacity utilization. This is quite a good indicator of economic stocks for the future. The optimum value for this indicator is 81.5. The value of more than 85 signals that the economy is overheated. Though even excessive value of this indicator may trigger currency strengthening, as high pressure economy brings about inflation, which signals that the Fed may raise discount rate. In case the value of the indicator is much lower than the optimum one it signals weak economy and may trigger currency weakening. Price of suppliers of goods may influence estimating as this price increase may push stocks and bonds prices down.

  Influence: CU approach to the threshold level (about 85) is treated as a signal of possible inflation.

  Market Importance: 1

  Released: Released at the mid of each month at 09:15 ET simultaneously with Industrial Production.

  Source: The Federal Reserve System.

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  Personal Income

  Country: USA

  Definition: Personal income measures households income from all sources before personal income tax is paid.

  Description: The measure of income from all sources, which can be estimated using payrolls and earnings data from the employment report. It includes rental income, interest income, government subsidy payments, dividend income, etc. Personal income indicates future consumer demand. It is reported together with Personal Spending.

  Influence: Personal income increase may trigger growth in Retail Sales, which is a positive factor for economic development and triggers USD rise.

  Market Importance: 1

  Released: Released monthly after the 20th of every month at 08:30 AM ET.

  Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Department of Commerce.

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  Personal Consumption / Expenditures (Personal Spending)

  Country: USA

  Definition: Personal Expenditures on domestic and imported durables, nondurables, and services.

  Description: PCE is comprised of three categories: durables, nondurables, and services. The retail sales report provides a good read on durable and nondurable consumption. Service purchases tend to grow at a fairly steady pace, making this a relatively predictable report. Economic recession often occurs once consumers stop spending money, which triggers decrease in demand. On the back of it this indicator increase is a positive factor for the national economy development.

  Influence: This indicator increase may trigger growth in Retail Sales, which is a positive factor for economic development and triggers USD rise.

  Market Importance: 1

  Released: Released monthly after the 20th of every month at 08:30 AM ET.

  Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Department of Commerce.

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  IFO Survey

  Country: Germany

  Definition: IFO Survey.

  Description: The Ifo survey, which evaluates business activity level in the country. Readings may change from 80 to 120, 2000 = 100. It has a great impact on the market.

  Influence: The indicator increase may trigger the euro rise.

  Market Importance: 2

  Released: Released monthly around 25th — 27th of every month at 10:30 ET.

  Source: Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.

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  ZEW Survey

  Country: Germany

  Definition: ZEW Survey.

  Description: ZEW Survey is a main indicator of investors' confidence. It is calculated on basis of 350 analysts' and institutional investors' polling. The indicator reflects the difference between analysts who are optimistic about forthcoming economic development of Germany within six months and those who are pessimistic. If most of respondents are optimistic, the reading is above zero, if pessimistic — below zero. Example: if thirty analysts are optimistic, thirty are neutral and forty are pessimistic, the reading will make «-10».

  Influence: The Survey is used for German economic prospects estimation. ZEW Survey growth causes the euro growth.

  Market Importance: 2

  Released: Released monthly every third (fourth) Tuesday at 11:00 EMT.

  Source: German Research Institute ZEW.

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  Tankan Survey

  Country: Japan

  Definition: Tankan survey .

  Description: To compose the survey about 8-10 thousand businessmen from different economic spheres are polled. The companies, among which 10-15 are large enterprises, 30-35 — medium-sized enterprises, 50-55 small enterprises, are asked about 1) business environment, 2) production and sales, 3) demand and supply, 4) prices level, 5) gains, 6) direct investments, 7) employment, 8) fiscal conditions. Top-managers are polled separately. Estimation methods: Diffusion Index (DI) — «Favourable» minus «Unfavourable», %points, Percent change — change of the index in relation to the same period of the previous year.

  Influence: The survey increase signals economic conditions improving and it is favourable for JPY rise.

  Market Importance: 3

  Released: Released four times a year, at the beginning of April, July, October and mid-December.

  Source: The Bank of Japan, BoJ.

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  Initial Claims (Jobless Claims)

  Country: USA

  Definition: A number of people who applied initial jobless claims.

  Description: The data indicate the number of initial claims applied to the Employment Department for the redundancy award receiving. The data provide up-to-date, but often delusive, indicator of economic tendency. Increase/decrease of those who applied initial claims signals in favor of growth slowdown/acceleration. In this respect the influence on market is low, though some influence on trading behavior is probable in rare cases. Due to the weekly data variability most of analysts prefer monitoring the four-week moving average to get more distinct reading while determining the main market tendency. Usually strong displacement (about 30K) is considered to get significant change of the trend.

  Influence: The steady decrease of initial claims signals economic growth and improvement in the Labor market and causes the dollar growth. The reading above 400 000 signals the problems in the Labor market.

  Market Importance: 1

  Released: Released weekly every Thursday at 8:30 AM ET.

  Source: U. S. Department of Labor.

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  Current Account (Balance of Payments)

  Country: USA

  Definition: The indicator measures the payments that flow between any individual country and all other countries.

  Description: Balance between payments to foreigners (debits) and payments received from foreigners (credits) includes: trade balance or trade gap and capital payments gap. Credits surplus over debits makes balance of payments and causes the national currency growth. Debits surplus over credits makes current account deficit and causes the national currency fall.

  Influence: Current account surplus is a favorable signal of the national currency growth.

  Market Importance: 3

  Released: Released quarterly at the mid of month at 10:00 AM ET.

  Source: Federal Reserve (FRS).

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  Productivity

  Country: USA

  Definition: Productivity is an indicator of labor factor use efficiency.

  Description: The index is typically measured as output per worker. The index is useful for prediction of the inflation and productivity increase. If labor costs increase relatively to productivity increase, and moreover process costs increase is doubtful, it won't cause inflationary growth. The final opinion about process costs may be made while comparing the index with the GDP. The reading influences greatly on the market, but sometimes misinforms participants, as the employment fall often causes productivity growth. It may be caused also by strikes.

  Influence: The index growth is a positive factor for the national economy development.

  Market Importance: 2

  Released: Released quarterly, twice for the previous quarter till 10th of every month (initial and final reading), on the 2nd Tuesday of the 2nd month of each quarter, for the previous quarter at 08:30 AM ET.

  Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U. S. Department of Labor.

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  Factory Orders

  Country: USA

  Definition: The net nominal difference between current monthly orders and annulled orders of the previous periods.

  Description: The indicator signals industrial demand on durables and non-durables. This indicator increase characterises production activity and its possible growth, while its decrease signals phase-down. That is why currency rate rises on this indicator increase and falls on decrease. This indicator includes Durable Goods Orders and Non-durable goods orders. Durable Goods Orders include goods with intended lifespan of more than 3 years (cars, furniture, building materials), which make more than 50 of the total. Non-durable goods orders include food, clothes, light industrial goods etc.

  Influence: Factory Orders characterise production activity. Increase in the indicator is a positive factor for the economy, while decrease in the indicator signals decline.

  Market Importance: 1

  Released: Released monthly at 10:00 AM ET.

  Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.

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  Repo Rate

  Country: Great Britain

  Definition: Repo rate.

  Description: Repo rate is an interest rate at which the BoE lends to banks and other financial institutes for short-term period (usually on an overnight basis). This interest rate is the main one in Great Britain (repo — repurchase agreement — an agreement, in accordance with which the seller is to repurchase the security from the buyer at a pre-agreed price at a specific date in the future). BOE set the upper edge of inflation at 2, in case consumer prices rise is quicker than 2, interest rates hikes are highly probable.

  Influence: High interest rates decrease consumer lending growth rates and stimulate savings increase, which triggers economic development slowdown. However, speculations on rates hikes usually trigger consumer lending boom. Rates hikes usually trigger capital inflow increase and national currency advance in the mid-term perspective. Still they may trigger economic stagnation and negative impact on the exchange markets in the long-term plan in case rates hikes are not based on high economic growth rates.

  Market Importance: 3

  Released: Released monthly, usually on Thursday 4-10 at 11:00 GMT. BOE minutes are released in 2 weeks after the rates decision announcement, usually on Wednesday.

  Source: The Bank of England.

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  Non—farm Payrolls

  Country: USA

  Definition: Non-farm Payrolls.

  Description: Non-farm Payrolls represent the total number of paid US workers of any business, excluding the following employees: general government employees, employees of nonprofit organizations that provide assistance to individuals, farm employees. About 400 thousand of companies and 50 thousand of home economics are estimated. These data are released monthly, revised in accordance with seasonal fluctuations, etc. Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Workweek and Hourly Earnings are used for inflation rate specification, that is for rates changes also.

  Influence: High rates of growth of the indicator stimulate economic growth acceleration.

  Market Importance: 3

  Released: Released monthly, usually on Friday at 08:30 AM ET.

  Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U. S. Department of Labor.

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  Retail Sales (RS)

  Country: USA

  Definition: A measure of changes in retail sales.

  Description: It is a measure of the total receipt of retail stores. Percent change in consumer goods selling is the most important part of this report. Retail Sales comprise two thirds of GDP. Changes in RS index indicate consumers spendings, which consist of durable goods, such as automobiles and household goods (about 40%), and of non-durable goods (about 60%). It should be taken into account that sell-out numbers changes are more often the result of food and auto fuel prices changes rather than of the level of consumer demand. .

  Influence: Market reaction on Retail Sales data may be quite strong as these data are difficult to forecast. Low figures signal economic rates decrease and the US dollar fall.

  Market Importance: 2

  Released: Released monthly at 08:30 AM ET around the 13th of the month.

  Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.

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  Federal Funds Rate

  Country: USA

  Definition: Federal Funds Rate.

  Description: Federal Funds Rate (FFR) is an interest rate used in the operations between the banks, members of the Federal Reserve System. FFR is regulated by Federal Open Market Committee, FOMC. Though financial instruments yield is specified by the market, rates are of great importance as they serve as a guide for the market participants, FFR and bonds yield correlation is very high. Rates hikes usually stimulate debt instruments yield growth, which encourages capital flow from the stock market to the debt market. *Lately growth dynamics of bond yield and FFR has differed greatly.

  Influence: High interest rates decrease consumer lending growth rates and stimulate savings increase, which triggers economic development slowdown. However, speculations on rates hikes usually trigger consumer lending boom. Rates hikes usually trigger capital inflow increase and national currency advance in the mid-term perspective. Still they may trigger economic stagnation and negative impact on the exchange markets in the long-term plan in case rates hikes are not based on high economic growth rates.

  Market Importance: 3

  Released: Released eight times per year, once every 1,5 month, usually on Tuesday at 2:15 PM ET.

  Source: The Federal Reserve System.

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  Refinancing Tender Rate

  Country: Euro Zone

  Definition: Refinancing Tender Rate.

  Description: Refinancing Tender Rate is the possibly least interest rate for funds attracting claims in ECB tender. Every two weeks the tender is held for funds investment, which is necessary for liquidity support in money system. Refinancing tender rate is the main European interest rate (12). The ECB set the higher inflationary edge at 2. If the consumer prices grow above 2 per year, interest rates increase may be expected.

  Influence: High rates decrease the consumer lending growth ratio and trigger savings growth, which causes economic growth slowdown. Herewith, expectation of the interest rates increase usually causes «boom» of consumer lending. The rates growth usually leads to the growth of capital inflow into the country and to the national currency growth in the mid-term perspective. If the rates growth isn't based on high economy growth ratio, it may lead to the stagnation of economy and negative influence on markets in the long-term perspective.

  Market Importance: 3

  Released: Released monthly, usually on the first Thursday of the month at 11:45 GMT. ECB's chairman press-briefing starts at 12:30 GMT.

  Source: The European Central Bank.

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  Trade Balance

  Country: USA

  Definition: Report on trade in goods, specifying the difference between monthly export and import.

  Description: Trade Balance is one of the key indicators. It is the value of the goods and services sold to other countries and bought from them, it forms part of the balance of payment (Current Account). The balance of trade is a correlation between the sum of money gained by the USA economy by exporting goods and services to other countries and the cost of goods and services imported to the country, that is the difference between export and import. At first export is analyzed as it has direct impact on the economic acceleration. Whereas import reflects demands for goods within the country (import increase reflects stocks forming, which may signify possible further slow increase in selling). Rate of exchange affects trade balance as it corrects the nominal value of the imported goods and services. In case the sum of exported goods and services exceeds the price of imported ones Trade Balance is positive (surplus), in case import surpasses export it is negative (deficit). Surplus (or decrease of deficit) is favourable for the national currency rate of exchange advance. In recent years the USA trade balance is negative, that is why it is indicated as Trade Deficit. Market reaction depends on the data importance. It should be noted that trade balance volatility may be significant for GDP forecasts, as import volume is subtracted from GDP whereas export volume is added to it.

  Influence: In case the USA Trade Deficit decreases on export expanding, demand for the national currency (USD) increases, which stimulates the dollar advance.

  Market Importance: 3

  Released: Released on the 3rd week of each month (usually on Tuesday, Thursday) at 08:30 AM ET.

  Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.

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  Unemployment Rate

  Country: USA

  Definition: A measure of unemployed workers (above 18 years) in relation to the total labor force.

  Description: Unemployment Rate is calculated monthly by surveying a random sample of about 60,000 households, 375,000 plants. It is one of the key macroeconomic indicators. Only unemployed are taken into account, that is jobless people, which actively look for work. The unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed by the number in the labor force, where the labor force is the sum of the unemployed and the employed. The natural rate of unemployment is considered to make about 4-5 of the labour force. It is treated as an indicator of possible inflationary pressure through wages increase. Salary is considered to grow faster with low unemployment rate, especially in case inflation acceleration is expected.

  Influence: In case rates hikes are expected unemployment rate decrease triggers USD advance.

  Market Importance: 2

  Released: Released monthly on Friday at 08:30 AM ET.

  Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U. S. Department of Labor.

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  Overnight Rate Target

  Country: Canada

  Definition: Overnight rate target.

  Description: Overnight Rate Target is the interest considered by BoC to be the average one in the transaction account market. Overnight rate target is the main rate in Canada. To control interest rates level on the overnight market BoC sets the so-called 0.50 width operational range, which mid is the overnight rate target.

  Influence: High interest rates decrease consumer lending growth rates and stimulate savings increase, which triggers economic development slowdown. However, speculations on rates hikes usually trigger consumer lending boom. Rates hikes usually trigger capital inflow increase and national currency advance in the mid-term perspective. Still they may trigger economic stagnation and negative impact on the exchange markets in the long-term plan in case rates hikes are not based on high economic growth rates.

  Market Importance: 3

  Released: Released eight times per year in accordance with the schedule of the Bank of Canada.

  Source: The Bank of Canada.

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  Beige Book

  Country: USA

  Definition: Economic survey of the US Federal Reserve System.

  Description: This report includes comments on regional conditions on: Retail Sales, consumption, manufacturing, labour market, real estate, banking business, finance, agriculture, energy and natural resources. Information is systematized on regions and economic sectors, which allows to estimate economic conditions on the regional level.
  The report is used to confirm existing economic tendencies. When speculations on possible rates changes appear in the market, the part speaking about wages and prices is taken into account.

  Influence: Beige book is used to evaluate economic efficiency of the US regions and indicate FOMC future monetary policy decisions.

  Market Importance: 1

  Released: Released two Wednesdays before every FOMC meeting, eight times per year, at 2:15 PM ET.

  Source: The Federal Reserve System.